Monday, August 25, 2014

THE BACKDOOR LOSS: GOD'S WAY OF TELLING YOU TO STOP GAMBLING

Whether it is in the form of fans buying boxes at their favorite bar, knockout pools, or wagers with a local bookie, a huge part of the NFL's allure is the ability to bet money on it. I learned about point spreads when I was still in elementary school, when my dad brought home the parlay slips that were ubiquitous in every dive bar in the Northeast. Picking 4 or 5 games and having my dad bankroll the action with the local Wiseguys may not have been the most ideal way to raise a child, but hey, it helped me practice ratios and multiplication so it wasn't all that bad.
Even fantasy football is basically a form of gambling; I am in a league with dues that start at 300 dollars and issue a payout to the champion that typically reaches over three grand. Unless there are no dues, fantasy is gambling, just with less chance to lose a fortune than dealing with your typical bookie or website.
Anyone who has ever put down a bet can tell you a gut wrenching story of a backdoor loss. Remember when Westbrook dropped like he was hit by a sniper on the way to the end zone against Dallas a few years back? Killing the clock was more important than scoring for the Eagles on that play. So one of the smartest plays in history was also one of the worst backdoors ever.
Ah yes, the backdoor loss, that awful kick in the nuts that can have you planning a vacation in the Caribbean one minute, then selling you car the next as Matt Schaub throws another Pick 6 to turn your 5 point cushion into a 2 point loss in the blink of an eye.
Yes, I know that backdoor covers happen too, and you win a game that you should have lost, but loses are always more memorable.
So here is a short list -by no means all inclusive- of the many ways NFL teams will inevitably break your heart this season, and the most likely culprits.


1. The late Pick 6: Self explanatory and the most common method, popularized of late by the aforementioned Matt Schaub, and raised to a level of near artful failure by Tony Romo. Since Schaub is now a Raider, his frequency of turning a positive drive for the offense into a 6 point deficit can only go up. If you decide to bet a nickel on the Raiders this year, don't say I didn't warn you.


2. Backdoored by a thousand cuts, also known as the Tom Brady: This is the type of backdoor that a seasoned gambler can see coming, knows that it is going to happen, and just has to sit there and take it like a man. Here is the scenario; you will have a heavy favorite, between 7 1/2 and 13 points or so, needing just a field goal to cover. Your team will have the ball with about 7 minutes to play and they will engage on a slow methodical drive, gaining between 3 and 4 yards every play, slowly eating the clock -and your bankroll- away. Even if they have scored at will for the entire game, NOW they decide to be conservative and take the ball to the one yard line, where the quarterback will drop down to victory formation and rob you of the victory you deserve. "Oh no, we can't score again, that would be mean and rubbing it in." Only in the NFL could teams beat the hell out of each other for over fifty minutes then worry about hurting the feelings of their opponent. I hate this backdoor, it is like being beaten to death with a wiffle-ball bat.

3. The useless 2 point conversion: You will have an underdog, and after getting throttled all game your team finally pulls within a half point of covering with a late touchdown, now all you need is the extra point to be kicked, a play that is successful about 99 % of the time, you are counting your money. But wait, what's this? The coach is going for 2! And why? Because that will bring him to within 2 scores if they can only recover two on-side kicks and hit a couple of Hail Marys with two more conversions. Who cares if there are only 10 seconds left, it is mathematically possible! NFL coaches that apply math without the support of reality are the bane of gamblers. This year who will do this the most? Doug Marrone and Mike Pettine, two guys in over their heads with teams that could be lousy this year, and bad teams go for more useless 2 pointers thank anyone, proceed with caution.



4. The Romo: Betting on a football game involving Romo -whether you bet for or against him- is the gambling equivalent of riding on a roller coaster at a traveling carnival. It is unpredictable, always fun, but may just kill you in the end. Tony Romo is the greatest enigma in football, a supremely talented quarterback that can play like Brett Favre one minute, and then, well, Brett Favre the next. Bet against him and he an go for 400 yards and 4 TDs and look like an All-Pro; believe in him and he can crush your dreams with a no-look lateral that a defensive tackle will return for a touchdown that makes it seems as if he just took up the sport. The man's capacity for extremes is unparalleled.



5. The Andy Reid: Never have Reid's strengths and weaknesses been more prominently displayed that Kansas City's playoff loss to the Colts last year. Has a 28 point lead in the third quarter ever been so unsafe as in Reid's hands? In one game he devised a game plan that seemed to score at will, but he still fails to grasp the simple task of shortening a game by running the ball. I really think he should coach in Canada with the way he appears to despise running. Did I mention his team was up by 28 points in the third quarter? You almost have to try to blow a lead that big in an NFL game. The Chiefs didn't even have to score in the second half of that game, all they needed to do was not have three and outs that took only 2 minutes off of the clock, over and over again. No lead is ever safe with this man.

There are more but this is a Blog, not a novel. Feel free to add any that I missed. Happy betting.



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